The North American snow season is off to a roaring start with significant snowfall across western resorts. From the Cascades in the northwest to the Rockies of Alberta down through Utah and Colorado, recent storms have deposited a solid 20-50cm+ of fresh powder, setting the stage for an eagerly anticipated opening.
Snowfall Highlights:
Snowmass, Colorado, stands out with a whopping 81cm storm total, nearly as tall as a Bennett’s wallaby!
El Niño Influence:
The current focal point for predicting this season’s snow lies far across the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in full swing. The sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are notably 1.6°C above average, indicating a strong El Niño phase. This warming trend is expected to continue, possibly intensifying into a “very strong” event before tapering off later in the season.
El Niño’s Impact on Snowfall:
El Niño typically redistributes snowfall patterns across North America:
- Increased Snowfall: Southern Sierras and Rockies (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico) tend to receive above-average snowfall due to a shifted Subtropical Jetstream directing storms across these regions.
- Decreased Snowfall: Northern Rockies and Cascades may experience below-average snow due to altered storm tracks and easterly wind anomalies weakening typical precipitation patterns.
Nuances in Snowfall Patterns:
The influence of El Niño can vary:
- Eastward Storm Track: Mountains exposed to the east (e.g., Front Range in Colorado) may fare better than those to the west (e.g., Park and Sawatch Ranges).
- Southern Coastal Mountains: An anomaly of higher snowfall is observed in the southern Coastal Mountains of Canada, likely due to unique geographic positioning enhancing precipitation during El Niño.
Climate Outlook:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and climate models align in forecasting:
- Southern Bonanza: Odds favor a robust snow season for southern regions, tempered by potential warmer temperatures affecting snow levels in the Sierras.
- Northern Trends: Northern U.S. and Canada may see below-average snowfall, though these regions typically maintain substantial snow accumulations.
While warmer temperatures pose challenges, particularly for lower elevations and coastal regions, interior and higher elevation areas are poised for a promising snow season. Stay tuned for weekly forecasts starting in December to stay updated on the latest developments across North America and Japan, right here on Mountainwatch.
Prepare for an exhilarating winter ahead!
